Monday 20 November 2023
More Greenback selling in NY on Friday and continued into Asia as markets still second-guessing CBs and now banking on the US Fed having finished their rate hikes. Seems they've forgotten that it's probably the same elsewhere too but for the moment that detail is pushed to one side.
The ongoing Middle East back-story sadly continues meanwhile and casts its own shadow over markets but still not driving them atm.Ignore at your peril though. It's US Thanksgiving week culminating in a long week-end so liquidity may be variable. Little on the data slate but a couple of CB speakers including BOE's Bailey at 18.45 GMT.
Equities fell in NY but then rose again into the close amid some USD supply/softer bond yields and still finding a little support in Asia and early European trading. WTI has put the brakes on its recent retreat and has tested $76.80 this morning amid the USD supply after holding $74.50, then $75.00 then $76.00 albeit with global demand concerns continuing. Gold is tightly bound still $1975-1985 as the jury remains out.
GBPUSD: Holding 1.2370-80 on Friday and a rally into 1.2500 again in Asia helped by the USD supply since. Some two-way business en route and I remain poised for further rally sells when momentum fades. EURGBP: Support at 0.8735-40 now but capping into 0.8765 again. More two-way expected amid the core pair fluctuation. GBPJPY: Capping at 187.00 then 186.50 this time with core pairs both finding rally supply despite firmer risk tones again.
EURUSD: Support around 1.0860 then 1.0880 before the break up through 1.0900 amid the USD supply. I remain a rally seller overall still as we continue to range tightly but seems underpinned for the moment. USDJPY: Now capping at 150.00 amid USD supply returning but holding 148.20 so far. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels.
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Interbank rates: 08.42 GMT