Monday 9 August 2021
The US jobs/wages report came in ON Friday above expectations albeit with low a low participation rate still but the USD bulls liked it with US Treasury yields rising and the taper talk accelerating.
The Greenback finds its itself still underpinned as we start the new week albeit off its highs while Gold is staging a recovery back toward $1750-60 from where it tumbled in Asia to $1663 amid large sell orders in thin liquidity after a move lower post-NFPs. Bargain buys or rally sell now? Gold/risk traders are divided. Oil has also fallen and remains near session lows as I type with equities generally steady amid the fragile risk tones still.
The Pound has generally felt some love since the slightly hawkish BOE tones on Thursday but rally sellers still prevailing as the new week gets underway. Talk of a rift between Fin Min Sunak and PM Johnson so keep an eye on those headlines.
Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy as we continue to range tightly overall. Still some good two-way pips to be had as the jury remains out so picking your moments and levels are more important than ever.
GBPUSD: 1.3850 still providing a decent base in the retreats posr-NFP and pips banked again per my earlier tweet. EURGBP off its lows helping to cap GBPUSD.I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.EURGBP: Finally broke down through 0.8500 on Thursdy amid that EUR supply I've been highlighting but accelerated by the GBP demand post-BOE. 0.8470 providing good support at the moment but equally 0.8500 will present good resistance.GBPJPY: 152.60 now support but equally capping around 153.20 which suits my core short positions.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.
EURUSD: Failure at 1.1820 and driven down through 1.1800 post-NFP but finding support at 1.1740 so far. Some option interest around/above 1.1800 today/tomorrow to keep in mind but the pair looks soft still overall amid general EUR supply elsewhere with cross flows very much making an impact still.USDJPY: Sellers at 109.80 filled in a rush post-NFP and a decent rally to look at 110.35 in the aftermath. Stopped myself out 110.05 from re-sells at 109.80 and 110.00 but resold into 110.30. EURJPY: 130.00 still providing resistance but underpinned at 129.50 again as I type. Rally sellers still poised on core pairs.
USDCHF: An old line at 0.9080 and now 0.9140 providing good support post-NFP with the SNB always keeping an eye on matters too as EURCHF fallies off its lows and EURUSD remains soggy. EURCHF: 1.0720 duly held and 1.0750 now becomes the new base with SNB shadow ever present but sellers still poised.
AUDUSD: A good cap at the strong 0.7400 amid the USD demand and pushed the pair down to 0.7330. Option interest notable nearby tomorrow. USDCAD: Finding support at 1.2540 helped by firmer USD/softer oil price now after capping at 1.2580 along with the CADJPY oil/risk related action.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.25 BST