Wednesday 29 May 2024
Some decent two-way business in the past 24 hours with the Greenback taking comfort from decent US Consumer Confidence data and rising bond yields but month-end flows are indeed USD negative as we suspected along with some corporate EUR selling too so we need to keep that in the mix.
Australian CPI came in above expectations and has helped support AUD pairs but not much else on the data slate today apart from US Richmond Fed Mftg Index and Fed Beige Book. Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East tensions sadly still cast their own very large shadow. Remember, don't get greedy or over-analyse.
Equities fell then rallied yesterday but falling again in Asia/early Europe albeit remain underpinned overall even with profit-takers still lurking as the CB second-guessing continues. WTI held $78.50-60 then $79.30-50 and now testing $80.00-20 amid the generally better risk appetite still. Gold remains underpinned now between $2345-65 albeit with some understandable profit taking continuing as I've been warning but appetite for the shiny stuff in the dips remains.
GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2800 as some USD returned by holding 1.2740-50 helped by GBPJPY demand still. EURGBP: Capping around 0.8515 amid the general GBP demand but holding around 0.8495-00 still as the ECB/BOE rate cut conjecture and cross flows continue. GBPJPY: Holding 200.00-10 amid the general JPY supply after capping into 200.75.
EURUSD: Holding 1.0850 in the retreat from 1.0880-90 amid the USD demand returning as we continue to range tightly. USDJPY: Support coming in at 156.60 again then 156.80 amid the better-risk JPY supply and USD demand returning but capping into 157.40 on the rally.
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
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