Thurday 25 April 2024
Some general USD selling in the past 24 hours but USDJPY remains underpinned and breaking up through 155.00 helped by the general JPY supply which is also underpinning core pairs through the cross flows. Also comments out of Japan that they weren't considering intervention atm. We've seen highs of 155.73 not seen since 1990 as markets await the latest BOJ policy decision tomorrow with the US Fed following next Wednesday so we should expect ongoing volatility.
US data today brings GDP, Core QQ consumption PCE flash and weekly jobless claims at 1.230 GMT. The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East tensions still cast their own very large shadow too. Remember as always to identify your preferred levels but don't get greedy or over-analyse.
Equities have had another retreat but steadier in early European trading as the jury remains out here too amid all the CB conjecture. WTI capped at $83.50 again after holding $81.50-60 in the retreat and holding $82.50 since amid the ongoing variables. Gold has capped around $2335 as profit-taking continues but finding some dip demand at $2305.
GBPUSD: Holding 1.2420-30 yesterday and another strong rally to break through 1.2460-70 and post 1.2510 so far reversing the Friday/Monday moves amid the general USD supply and GBPJPY demand double whammy again. I remain a seller while we continue to range overall and will be poised when momentum fades. EURGBP: Capping into 0.8600 amid the GBP rally and now testing 0.8570 but the ECB/BOE rate cut conjecture continues.
EURUSD: Support around 1.0680 yesterday amid the general USD supply but capping into 1.0730 so far as the two-way buiness continues with ECB conjecture a driver but cuts largely factored in. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side still but patience a virtue as we range tightly. USDJPY: Breaking the key 155.00 area per my opening notes and underpinned now at 155.00-20 helped by JPY supply returning. No Japanese FX intervention as yet but maybe their patience will be tested soon or try and offer some hawkish talk at the BOJ meeting lurking tomorrow.
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
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