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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Yen supply still notable

Tuesday 14 May 2024

FX markets are  still ranging with the focus now shifting to the release of US CPI data tomorrow but there's PPI first up the ramp today plus Fed Chair Powell on the rostrum too. This morning BOE Chief Economist has been on the wires and some dovish tones from him have knocked the Pound a little lower in a rush (all relative these days with ranges so tight) as markets continue to second-guess but there's some decent GBPUSD option interest today which should help support in the dip. We've seen USDJPY push up further to test 156.50 helped by JPY supply returning after yesterday's wobble amid talk of Japanese mon pol normalisation. More jawboning from Suzuki being understandably ignored.


Yesterday SNB Chair Jordan noted that the battle against inflation is almost done but emphasized that uncertainty remains and a need for continued vigilance. The outlook for Swiss inflation has notably improved he said and saw a more stable economic environment moving forward.


Equities fell in NY again but steadier as European trading gets underway bringing with it some better risk appetite while WTI is holding $78.40 after failing at $79.00 in Asia amid the ongoing variables. Gold has capped at $2350 this time and currently holding $2335 in the retreat. Expect profit-taking to continue in the rallies but appetite for the shiny stuff remains.


GBPUSD: Holding around 1.2500-10 in this morning's Pill-led retreat after failing at 1.2570 yesterday with large option interest still helping to contain. I remain a seller while we continue to range overall. EURGBP: Capping onto 0.8615 as I type after the Pill-led rally from 0.8585-90 as the ECB/BOE rate cut conjecture and cross flows continue.

GBPJPY: Holding 195.70 in this morning's retreat after capping around 196.50-60 from 195.30 lows yesterday amid USDJPY price action and intervention second-guessing. Sellers will remain poised in these fickle markets but still expecting dip demand too.


EURUSD: Support around 1.0775 athis morning after failing at 1.0800-10 yesterday amid some USD demand returning. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side still. USDJPY: Support coming in at 155.75-80 yesterday but capping into 156.50 so far. Intervention risk/ rate hike talk will still cast its shadow and I still prefer the short side on a risk/reward basis overall but dip demand expected too.


Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk




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